Impact by country
Bulgaria
- €1.5bn
- 10-year exposure, Medium scenario
- €990m
- One-off migration cost, Medium
- €41m/yr
- Recurring price effect, Medium
Cost per person in the working-age labour force
Per economically active person (age 20–64), 10-year horizon
| Measure | Narrow | Medium | Broad |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year total economic exposure | €150 | €509 | €1,072 |
| Effect on the real GDP level | -€3 | -€12 | -€27 |
Annual recurring cloud-service price effects
€ million, 2025 expenditure base
Sector
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €4.9m | €24m | €49m |
| Medium | €5.9m | €30m | €59m |
| Broad | €6.5m | €32m | €65m |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €11m | €57m | €114m |
| Medium | €35m | €175m | €349m |
| Broad | €76m | €382m | €764m |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €16m | €81m | €163m |
| Medium | €41m | €204m | €409m |
| Broad | €83m | €414m | €829m |
Migration and systems-redesign costs
Present value of one-off transition costs, € billion
Sector
Ordinary public support
€ million, public sector
Transition scarcity costs
Present value, € million, public and private sectors combined
Downstream ICT-vendor exposure
Domestic vendors affected, and annual value added at risk
- 1
- Narrow – vendor equivalents affected
- 5
- Medium – vendor equivalents affected
- 12
- Broad – vendor equivalents affected
- €25m
- Narrow – annual value added at risk
- €99m
- Medium – annual value added at risk
- €225m
- Broad – annual value added at risk
Combined delayed cloud and AI benefits
€ billion, forgone productivity gains