Impact by country
Germany
- €16.2bn
- 10-year exposure, Medium scenario
- €10.7bn
- One-off migration cost, Medium
- €438m/yr
- Recurring price effect, Medium
Cost per person in the working-age labour force
Per economically active person (age 20–64), 10-year horizon
| Measure | Narrow | Medium | Broad |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year total economic exposure | €96 | €396 | €905 |
| Effect on the real GDP level | -€14 | -€55 | -€126 |
Annual recurring cloud-service price effects
€ million, 2025 expenditure base
Sector
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €20m | €98m | €195m |
| Medium | €26m | €130m | €259m |
| Broad | €29m | €146m | €293m |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €129m | €646m | €1.3bn |
| Medium | €412m | €2.1bn | €4.1bn |
| Broad | €918m | €4.6bn | €9.2bn |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €149m | €744m | €1.5bn |
| Medium | €438m | €2.2bn | €4.4bn |
| Broad | €947m | €4.7bn | €9.5bn |
Migration and systems-redesign costs
Present value of one-off transition costs, € billion
Sector
Ordinary public support
€ million, public sector
Transition scarcity costs
Present value, € million, public and private sectors combined
Downstream ICT-vendor exposure
Domestic vendors affected, and annual value added at risk
- 16
- Narrow – vendor equivalents affected
- 62
- Medium – vendor equivalents affected
- 141
- Broad – vendor equivalents affected
- €301m
- Narrow – annual value added at risk
- €1.2bn
- Medium – annual value added at risk
- €2.7bn
- Broad – annual value added at risk
Combined delayed cloud and AI benefits
€ billion, forgone productivity gains