Impact by country
Portugal
- €4bn
- 10-year exposure, Medium scenario
- €2.9bn
- One-off migration cost, Medium
- €96m/yr
- Recurring price effect, Medium
Cost per person in the working-age labour force
Per economically active person (age 20–64), 10-year horizon
| Measure | Narrow | Medium | Broad |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year total economic exposure | €281 | €756 | €1,353 |
| Effect on the real GDP level | -€4 | -€18 | -€40 |
Annual recurring cloud-service price effects
€ million, 2025 expenditure base
Sector
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €28m | €139m | €279m |
| Medium | €34m | €170m | €340m |
| Broad | €37m | €186m | €372m |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €20m | €101m | €202m |
| Medium | €62m | €309m | €618m |
| Broad | €135m | €676m | €1.4bn |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €48m | €240m | €481m |
| Medium | €96m | €479m | €958m |
| Broad | €172m | €862m | €1.7bn |
Migration and systems-redesign costs
Present value of one-off transition costs, € billion
Sector
Ordinary public support
€ million, public sector
Transition scarcity costs
Present value, € million, public and private sectors combined
Downstream ICT-vendor exposure
Domestic vendors affected, and annual value added at risk
- 1
- Narrow – vendor equivalents affected
- 6
- Medium – vendor equivalents affected
- 13
- Broad – vendor equivalents affected
- €28m
- Narrow – annual value added at risk
- €109m
- Medium – annual value added at risk
- €249m
- Broad – annual value added at risk
Combined delayed cloud and AI benefits
€ billion, forgone productivity gains