ECIPE — European Centre for International Political Economy

A study by ECIPE

Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA)

The real-world economic impact of the Cloud and AI Development Act

Impact by country

Sweden

€3.6bn
10-year exposure, Medium scenario
€2.5bn
One-off migration cost, Medium
€83m/yr
Recurring price effect, Medium

Cost per person in the working-age labour force

Per economically active person (age 20–64), 10-year horizon

Measure Narrow Medium Broad
10-year total economic exposure €243 €681 €1,257
Effect on the real GDP level -€22 -€88 -€200

Annual recurring cloud-service price effects

€ million, 2025 expenditure base

Sector
Scenario Per year 5 years 10 years
Narrow €40m €200m €400m
Medium €83m €417m €834m
Broad €154m €770m €1.5bn

Migration and systems-redesign costs

Present value of one-off transition costs, € billion

Sector
Narrow €807m
Medium €2.5bn
Broad €4.6bn

Ordinary public support

€ million, public sector

Narrow €1.1m
Medium €11m
Broad €34m

Transition scarcity costs

Present value, € million, public and private sectors combined

Narrow €0.7m
Medium €8.6m
Broad €34m

Downstream ICT-vendor exposure

Domestic vendors affected, and annual value added at risk

3
Narrow – vendor equivalents affected
11
Medium – vendor equivalents affected
24
Broad – vendor equivalents affected
€51m
Narrow – annual value added at risk
€202m
Medium – annual value added at risk
€460m
Broad – annual value added at risk

Combined delayed cloud and AI benefits

€ billion, forgone productivity gains

Narrow €6.7m
Medium €82m
Broad €263m