ECIPE — European Centre for International Political Economy

A study by ECIPE

Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA)

The real-world economic impact of the Cloud and AI Development Act

Impact by country

Croatia

€880m
10-year exposure, Medium scenario
€581m
One-off migration cost, Medium
€25m/yr
Recurring price effect, Medium

Cost per person in the working-age labour force

Per economically active person (age 20–64), 10-year horizon

Measure Narrow Medium Broad
10-year total economic exposure €148 €507 €1,072
Effect on the real GDP level -€3 -€13 -€30

Annual recurring cloud-service price effects

€ million, 2025 expenditure base

Sector
Scenario Per year 5 years 10 years
Narrow €10m €50m €101m
Medium €25m €125m €250m
Broad €50m €252m €505m

Migration and systems-redesign costs

Present value of one-off transition costs, € billion

Sector
Narrow €139m
Medium €581m
Broad €1.3bn

Ordinary public support

€ million, public sector

Narrow €0.1m
Medium €1.2m
Broad €3.8m

Transition scarcity costs

Present value, € million, public and private sectors combined

Narrow €0.1m
Medium €2.4m
Broad €11m

Downstream ICT-vendor exposure

Domestic vendors affected, and annual value added at risk

1
Narrow – vendor equivalents affected
2
Medium – vendor equivalents affected
5
Broad – vendor equivalents affected
€11m
Narrow – annual value added at risk
€43m
Medium – annual value added at risk
€97m
Broad – annual value added at risk

Combined delayed cloud and AI benefits

€ billion, forgone productivity gains

Narrow €0.5m
Medium €6m
Broad €21m