Impact by country
France
- €16.2bn
- 10-year exposure, Medium scenario
- €11.1bn
- One-off migration cost, Medium
- €408m/yr
- Recurring price effect, Medium
Cost per person in the working-age labour force
Per economically active person (age 20–64), 10-year horizon
| Measure | Narrow | Medium | Broad |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year total economic exposure | €155 | €534 | €1,119 |
| Effect on the real GDP level | -€9 | -€36 | -€81 |
Annual recurring cloud-service price effects
€ million, 2025 expenditure base
Sector
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €52m | €260m | €520m |
| Medium | €68m | €341m | €683m |
| Broad | €76m | €380m | €761m |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €106m | €532m | €1.1bn |
| Medium | €340m | €1.7bn | €3.4bn |
| Broad | €757m | €3.8bn | €7.6bn |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €158m | €792m | €1.6bn |
| Medium | €408m | €2bn | €4.1bn |
| Broad | €833m | €4.2bn | €8.3bn |
Migration and systems-redesign costs
Present value of one-off transition costs, € billion
Sector
Ordinary public support
€ million, public sector
Transition scarcity costs
Present value, € million, public and private sectors combined
Downstream ICT-vendor exposure
Domestic vendors affected, and annual value added at risk
- 7
- Narrow – vendor equivalents affected
- 28
- Medium – vendor equivalents affected
- 64
- Broad – vendor equivalents affected
- €136m
- Narrow – annual value added at risk
- €536m
- Medium – annual value added at risk
- €1.2bn
- Broad – annual value added at risk
Combined delayed cloud and AI benefits
€ billion, forgone productivity gains