Impact by country
Poland
- €8.5bn
- 10-year exposure, Medium scenario
- €5.7bn
- One-off migration cost, Medium
- €228m/yr
- Recurring price effect, Medium
Cost per person in the working-age labour force
Per economically active person (age 20–64), 10-year horizon
| Measure | Narrow | Medium | Broad |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year total economic exposure | €143 | €494 | €1,038 |
| Effect on the real GDP level | -€3 | -€12 | -€28 |
Annual recurring cloud-service price effects
€ million, 2025 expenditure base
Sector
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €23m | €115m | €230m |
| Medium | €30m | €152m | €305m |
| Broad | €34m | €172m | €344m |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €65m | €324m | €648m |
| Medium | €198m | €990m | €2bn |
| Broad | €433m | €2.2bn | €4.3bn |
| Scenario | Per year | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | €88m | €439m | €878m |
| Medium | €228m | €1.1bn | €2.3bn |
| Broad | €467m | €2.3bn | €4.7bn |
Migration and systems-redesign costs
Present value of one-off transition costs, € billion
Sector
Ordinary public support
€ million, public sector
Transition scarcity costs
Present value, € million, public and private sectors combined
Downstream ICT-vendor exposure
Domestic vendors affected, and annual value added at risk
- 3
- Narrow – vendor equivalents affected
- 11
- Medium – vendor equivalents affected
- 24
- Broad – vendor equivalents affected
- €51m
- Narrow – annual value added at risk
- €202m
- Medium – annual value added at risk
- €461m
- Broad – annual value added at risk
Combined delayed cloud and AI benefits
€ billion, forgone productivity gains