ECIPE — European Centre for International Political Economy

A study by ECIPE

Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA)

The real-world economic impact of the Cloud and AI Development Act

Impact by country

Spain

€12bn
10-year exposure, Medium scenario
€8.5bn
One-off migration cost, Medium
€293m/yr
Recurring price effect, Medium

Cost per person in the working-age labour force

Per economically active person (age 20–64), 10-year horizon

Measure Narrow Medium Broad
10-year total economic exposure €149 €500 €1,025
Effect on the real GDP level -€4 -€17 -€38

Annual recurring cloud-service price effects

€ million, 2025 expenditure base

Sector
Scenario Per year 5 years 10 years
Narrow €112m €561m €1.1bn
Medium €293m €1.5bn €2.9bn
Broad €598m €3bn €6bn

Migration and systems-redesign costs

Present value of one-off transition costs, € billion

Sector
Narrow €2.3bn
Medium €8.5bn
Broad €17.2bn

Ordinary public support

€ million, public sector

Narrow €1.5m
Medium €15m
Broad €48m

Transition scarcity costs

Present value, € million, public and private sectors combined

Narrow €2.2m
Medium €33m
Broad €143m

Downstream ICT-vendor exposure

Domestic vendors affected, and annual value added at risk

4
Narrow – vendor equivalents affected
17
Medium – vendor equivalents affected
39
Broad – vendor equivalents affected
€83m
Narrow – annual value added at risk
€329m
Medium – annual value added at risk
€749m
Broad – annual value added at risk

Combined delayed cloud and AI benefits

€ billion, forgone productivity gains

Narrow €13m
Medium €158m
Broad €525m